BY DF, PORT LOUS, MAURITIUS
The electoral campaign in Mauritius has reached the critical phase. We are in the last 8 days and observers are still unable to clearly state who they think the population will vote for.
However, field surveys over a week conducted by our team shows a very large percentage of Mauritians are still on the fence. They did not want to state their choices and preferences.
We interpret it this way: Either the people want another 5 years for Pravind Jugnauth, or the 2014 super nation of voters is about to do a “remake” of overthrowing the ruling coalition.
The other significant conclusion is perhaps the silent majority will also throw the Labour out of the way?
Nevertheless, we can also say the PTR (Labour) got blown off its massive lead in the campaign with the Navin Gate.
Videos of ex-PM Navin Ramgoolam in his private apartment at Roches Noires has hit Labour faithful in their ego. They are now even more reluctant to vote for the PTR.
Needless to say the MSM-ML with its long list of carbage, is struggling altogether.
Nonetheless, the MMM, on the other hand, has not shown any sign of weakening. The party is a crowd puller and has an acceptable, reasonable manifesto.
As a matter of fact, if the MMM was given two more weeks of the campaign, Paul Berenger would be speaking of 60-0. The party would also see many ex-MMM back on the coaltar.
However, the rate of which the support for the MMM grew in the last week is formidable.
The main opponent of the Ptr and the MSM in rural areas this time is themselves.
Note that casteism is at the centre of the campaign in the villages. And details show an emerging power vacuum in constituencies 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12. These could benefit the MMM, surprisingly enough.
The names Sebastien Lamy, Anand Heeroo, Parmessur Ramloll, Vinay Koonjul and Kishore Pertab could be sending Paul Berenger on the Prime Minister throne.
That is if there is a constant rise in the trend against both the MSM-Labour.
In 2010, Berenger tried a similar tactic with Dinesh Ramjuttun, Madan Dulloo, Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo and Ashock Jugnauth.
But against a much stronger opponent, the MMM was flattened in rural areas.
For these elections, the configuration has changed. We have a three-cornered fight on our hands.
Three parties are competing and two are playing the casteism card, leaving the MMM alone to nurture the electorate.
During the survey conducted by our team, shocking confessions were revealed.
There is no “mot d’ordre” of racist nature this time. Rather there is confusion. The MSM and the PTR are fighting within the same bank of voters. And where there is confusion, the “vot blok” becomes scarce.
This may benefit the MMM so much so that even on their calculations, the 5 mentioned candidates are not even favourites.
“In a battle between two elephants, the lion waits for its next meal.”